How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the near lengthy war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results

The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Zachary Cruz
Zachary Cruz

A tech enthusiast and cloud computing expert with a passion for sharing insights on digital transformation and emerging technologies.